Edward Hopper
Cara Clara
What I write here is not happy, for you or others. I get no pleasure from telling you these things, though, unlike most people, I long anticipated this, so it does not come as a surprise to me. It was not a matter of if, but only when, and what might the trigger be. In this case it is an invisible to the eye entity, a virus, which thanks to globalization has spread around the world in mere months. That same globalization has also inflicted vast damages we only now have begun – far too late – to acknowledge and at least pretend to act upon. This is a deep complex matter, one as trivial as plastic bags (which while “convenient” turn out to be lethal), or as harrowing as human nature – how we humans actually behave, historically. As I think it is not so likely that your society in Portugal, and certainly not mine in America, will tend to discuss these things, I do so, here, for you.
Philip Guston
I see that Portugal has joined Spain and France, Italy and others in bringing to a stop the normal activities of our lives – schools and businesses closed, gatherings of people banned, confinement to one’s house. We are, almost globally, now quarantined. I have friends in Iran, in Italy, and elsewhere, and have been in touch with them. Their lives are for the moment radically changed, and I think as the true realities of this coronavirus unfold, they will be changed far more than imagined now. This will not be a temporary 2 or 3 or 6 month event, and then everything returns as it was. It will be a profound jolt to our societies and their systems, and will force us to completely change them, or die.
As you can see here, it is the United States which is mostly in debt, public and private, in the world economy. Ironically the US Dollar is the monetary lingua franca, and in economic crises, such as is happening now, investors flee to the dollar. I anticipate this soon coming to a stop, which will cause a global upheaval in the financial world. And the “real” world. It will also relieve me of my modest savings. I keep waiting.
Soon harsh economic repercussions will surface, with businesses closing and collapsing, and a vast chain of matters which are closely linked – but which our society because of its complexity tends to hide and also deliberately obscures for us – all will be effected. For you in Portugal, where 10% of your gross domestic produce is centered on tourism, (in Italy it is 13%, in Spain 10-11%, France 8%) the effects will be immediate and hard. And this is considering only those things directly related to tourism; other things reliant on it – restaurants and shops, and all the things which serve in some degree those tourists. To say, for countries such as Portugal one of the first impacts will be the losses incurred from tourism slowing to a trickle, and then the local effects of that. Those hardest hit will be those places most heavily invested in tourism as an industry, among them Portugal.
Walker Evans
As these effects multiply we are likely to enter a deep recession or a depression. While for the moment governments are stepping in to assure an income, and to try to establish a kind of stability this will most likely last only a short while. All kinds of economic activities will shudder and come to a halt – small and big manufacturing, retail shops, one thing after another, jobs will be shed, and the economic fluid will freeze up. As is happening now, the market shelves will empty, work will disappear. And under the social stresses politics will take a hard and ugly turn – as it already has. We can expect a turn to whatever form of authoritarianism/fascism the current times will make. In Europe immigrants from Africa and Asia will be refused; perhaps those already in Europe will be forced out. Or killed. This is what happens to people and societies when they are put under great pressures. It is not nice.
Dorothea Lange
I am not a Cassandra, and don’t really know what will or won’t happen in the near future, but I have always been a keen observer of our world, of our history, and my conclusions are usually “hard-nosed” and realistic. Others often say I am cynical, or that I exaggerate and usually see the worst. And this may be true, though if only because I do not like to sugarcoat what I know of history, or what I have experienced in my own life. Your circumstance is an example of what I know people to be capable of doing.
For my own amusement or interests, I usually post a little morning mini-essay on Facebook. Sometimes about the arts, photography, or some current matter in the headlines. This is what I posted today:
As the globe shuts down in a panic for toilet paper, the other shoe looms in sight, hanging overhead, waiting to drop. It will be followed by a cascade of other shoes, like a heavy rainfall. Once the absurdist scramble for butt wipe has ceased to be funny, and reality takes hold, one will see that the 1.5 trillion instant bucks the Fed tossed at the Sacred Market, will seem as fruitful at the Don’s cavalier tossing of paper towels at Puerto Ricans not so long ago. The US government is now 23.5 trillion in the hole. The US private debt – you, the store down the street, the big corporate campus across town – is 27 trillion in debt. Shortly these will all grow suddenly and then under the strain of illusionary wealth, turn into a chimera in the desert.
The USA, holder of the God Almighty Buck, refuge of finance whenever there is a “problem”, is about to enter a deep recession, or more accurately a depression. Then banks will collapse. The world will be joining us as we powerhouse ourselves into the vast hole we have dug in the last 40 years. Like a black hole in space it will suck in the big and the small and all your happy assumptions about tomorrow – the trip you were going to take this summer, the new car or house you planned to buy, the fancy exotic whatever you meant to fly in for a treat – this, plus, oh, paying your rent, the electricity bill, or eating are all about to get problematic. Ain’t gonna be like it was again in 3 months, once we get “through this”, everything returned to “normal”. Coffee will not be $4. It just may not be at all. Likewise your 401K or your “savings.”
For the moment governments will attempt to ward off this collapse with a range of “tools” – they will throw money at everyone trying to keep the illusion viable. This will fail as the money itself is an illusion, a social agreement which has already collapsed, just most people remain under the sway of the Wizards of Wall Street, executors of this mystical con. When palliatives like tossing phony money doesn’t do the trick, martial law will be installed. Jackboots will join the cascade of shoes.
And when the dust settles the world will not reassemble itself to something like you feel familiar with. Millions, and in due time billions of people will simply not be here as the system which sustained them will have proven unsustainable. If usual patterns are followed, these enormous social stresses will result in common human behaviors – lashing out of those near enough to lashed out at; growing hard and callous about all but your tribe. Killing and finally war. In this case probably the last war for our species.
Cassandra told you.
I hope that I am wrong about all this, though I am certain, at least in some respects that I am correct. Our system is unsustainable, it is collapsing now, and will continue to do so. Whether it does so in the manner I have described, as drawn from historical examples, I would hope not. I would hope we humans would be able to step back and calmly, as intelligently as possible, move to change our course. There is, sadly, nothing in our collective history which prompts me to think this is probable. Quite the opposite.
German children with a kite made of worthless Reichsmarks in the 1930’s
In the early 20th century, what to you must seem another world, for complex reasons the world fell into an economic depression, which in Europe and Asia stirred nationalist sentiments, which, in a short period generated World War Two. At the end of that war, within my lifetime, the sophisticated society which was Germany – a society of brilliant music, literature, and visual arts, well organized and intellectually deep had degenerated to a place which had made this – which everyone knew about but pretended not to know. And they did almost nothing to stop it.
I know that seeing or thinking about these things is not easy or pleasant. Our society does all it can to divert us from seeing such things – things which our societies do everyday, though usually far away, in Africa or some “other place.” Things, like the concentration camps of Germany, which people “did not know about,” because at bottom they did not want to know about them.
Soon you will be 23, on March 27. The world you will face on your birthday this year will look very different from the one you celebrated in one year ago. It is actually the same world, only with a mask taken from it, with realities which were there but were better hidden and are now revealed.
When I was your age, I was in prison, for having refused to serve in the US military. On my release in June 1965, the Vietnam war had taken over the headlines of the world, as had the Civil Rights movement in my country. While I was in prison, a friend and brief lover of mine before I was imprisoned, committed suicide. Her name was Kathy Handler. While in prison I wrote the text for a film in some way reflective of her, and on getting out I made the short film TRAPS. I had no money, and everything was borrowed, it was except for one shot done on “printers tails,” which a friend in a film laboratory gave me (this is a very very slow merciless stock not intended for shooting, but to print on).
https://vimeo.com/49187285 Password: TRAPS2018
In the following year I also shot another short, 13 FRAGMENTS & 3 NARRATIVES FROM LIFE. It was based on a real person, a young woman who studied art at the Chicago Art Institute, and reflected her view, while my own views, a form of critique, is in a voice over. Again I had virtually no money, and the form of the film – as would become normal for me, was dictated by that reality. There were no retakes.
This was the mythical 1968, when the world seemed on the cusp of a revolutionary change of some kind. There were upheavals around the world, assassinations, mass gatherings and it seemed the world trembled. It was exhilarating and at the same time full of fear and anxiety. Very much, in a very different way, as it is now.
https://vimeo.com/49187281 Password: FRAGS
I know that what I have said here is probably depressing. It is not nice, at your age, to hear that the future looks dim, that there are massive problems which you cannot really change, and that you are, along with everyone else, swept along by a fate which you do not feel you chose. I know in part because I, and many of those around me at the time, felt much the same in our youth. Many did not – they simply ignored reality, and circumstances were such that they could. For you, this is perhaps no longer an option: reality will press itself upon you whether you like it or not.
Helen Frankenthaler
The beginning for a new book of poems I am putting together:
12/05/19
Empty.
Room
glass
page.
Among the things I am doing now, especially as going out is not advised (at almost 77, I am well within the kill-range of the coronavirus) is making large prints of a sequence of photographs taken three and some years ago, while walking the beach near Ragusa, Italy. They are pictures of almost nothing.
These kinds of days hang heavy on everyone, as people find their assumptions ripped apart, their plans for a future which never existed except as thread of neurons crackling in your head, and they ponder what their lives are and will be. It is one of those experiences which we humans seem to willfully provoke for each generation. A great war, an economic peak and collapse, some distinct event that galvanizes the whole of a society, or in this case, the entire world. In this sense, it is “normal” – we manage to do it again and again, though typically we collectively forget.
I know these will be difficult times for you, not just tomorrow or the next days and months, but probably for a long time to come. Your hopes and dreams will be cast out, whatever plans you had forced to be set aside. It will be difficult for us all. In the next days I will write you again, and try, as best I can, to suggest ways for you to cope, without sorrow or sadness, without despair, with this new situation.
Philip Guston
Amo-te, Clarinha, and I am deeply sorry events were such that we have been unable to see one another in the last 19 years. You know why.
I love you
Your father
jon
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